INCORPORATING SHAPENZ

Topics

Party Vote

22% slump in climate change concern

3 Aug 12 – The number of New Zealanders who think climate change is an urgent and immediate problem has slumped, according to a new poll. A HorizonPoll for Carbon News, finds that just over half of adult New Zealanders consider it urgent or a “problem for now”. But four years ago, three out of...
40%+ of middle income households plan to cut spending

23 May 11 – The intention to cut back spending after the Budget is highest among middle-income New Zealand households. HorizonPoll post-Budget research finds 35% of households say they will spend less as a result of the Budget. It particularly affects spending intentions among middle income households. 44.2%...
5.5% gap between preferred National-Labour coalition options

29 Oct 11 – The first poll of the 2011 election campaign shows 42.1% of voters would prefer a National-led government after the November 26 general election. A Labour-led government is preferred by 36.6% (a 5.5% gap). However, 21.3% are undecided. The RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll of 887 voters between Tuesday and...
71.5% say media people less credible when they accept non-media cash

6 May 12 – 71.5% of New Zealanders think media people who accept cash or other benefits from a non-media organisation are less credible when doing their news work. 66.6% of NewstalkZB listeners think this way. The radio station’s breakfast presenter, Mike Hosking, has reportedly stood earn up to $48,000...
80.7% want independent investigation of complaints against police

16 Oct 12 – A Horizon Research survey over the weekend finds 80.7% of New Zealanders want all complaints about the police to be investigated independently. The survey also finds: 76.3% think the Independent Police Conduct Authority should have the power to initiate a prosecution against police officers if it...
89% oppose having to prove innocence over internet downloads

24 Apr 11 – Only 1.6% of New Zealanders support a new law’s provision requiring people to prove their innocence, or face penalties of up to $15,000 and internet disconnection, if accused of breaching copyright when transferring files. Some 89% think authorities should have to prove a person has illegally...
Act breaks through 5% support threshold

15 May 11 – The Act Party now has 5.3% voter support. A new HorizonPoll conducted between Thursday and Friday shows Act is up from 3.7% in April after making Don Brash its leader. The first result for the new Mana Party shows it has 2.3% party vote support nationwide, ahead of the Maori Party on 2.1%. Mana is...
Banks failing to carry National vote, Auckland and business

2 Oct 10 – The latest HorizonPoll tracking survey finds Len Brown continuing to gain over John Banks in the Auckland super city Mayoralty race. Among those who have already voted, Brown’s lead over Banks has increased from 27% to a 32%, and he leads Banks by 40% to 18% among those who have yet to vote...
Brown beating Banks in race for Aucklanders' hearts

15 Sep 10 – Aucklanders are more likely to have positive feelings about Mayoral candidate Len Brown than his main rival John Banks, according to the first research probing super city voters’ feelings. Brown leads Banks by 12% among decided voters in the latest HorizonPoll survey of 1025 super city...
Business decision makers approve Government's performance

14 Oct 11 – Business leaders are more likely to postively rate the government than general voters. A Horizon Research poll, a conducted between September 12-30, shows the National-led government’s overall performance met the expectations of 51.8% of the country’s business decision makers, The...
Capital gains tax attracts more support than opposition

24 Jul 11 – More New Zealanders support than oppose a capital gains tax. The first nationwide poll conducted since the policy announcement finds 40.9% support Labour’s capital gains tax (CGT) proposal , 34.1% oppose, 17.9% are neutral and 7.1% don’t know. The HorizonPoll survey of 1201 people on...
Coalition options on knife edge: National, Labour enjoy strong support rises

2 Dec 12 – National and Labour have enjoyed significant increases in support among eligible voters. There would be a knife edge choice between potential National and Labour led coalitions if an election were held now. New Zealand First, with control of the cross benches, would determine what happened in...
Comparing polls

14 May 11 – Some bloggers supporting various political parties are asking why Horizon's party vote poll results differ from other polls. They point out that other polls, mainly conducted by phone, have National about 20% ahead of Labour. Horizon's polls show a lesser margin, for example, 9.7% on May 14 and...
Country evenly split on preferred main party coalition leader

19 Nov 11 – The country is now evenly split on which main party is preferred to lead a coalition government if one is required after Saturday’s general election. A 5.5% preference lead for National has closed completely since October 29. 41.5% now want a Labour-led government, 41.1% a National-led one. ...
Country split on Government handling of economy

19 Sep 10 – The country is evenly split over the Government’s handling of the economy: 29% disapprove, 28% approve. An HorizonPoll survey of 3,655 New Zealanders shows 35% neither approve nor disapprove, while 8% don’t know. Weighted to represent the national population, the August 24 to September...
Don’t know voters and minor parties will determine who governs

22 Oct 11 – New Zealand is currently heading for a close election result. Which main party will have an opportunity to form the next Government may depend on the New Zealand First and the Mana parties, and who 6.9% of undecided voters support. An October 19-21 RadioLIVE-Horizon poll of 2,200 registered...
Election cliff hanger – new Conservatives could play vital role

31 Oct 11 – Act support is sliding and the new Conservative party’s support rising in the latest RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll. When the results for both decided voters and undecided voters with a preference are considered, the current National-led coalition would have 61 seats in a 122 seat Parliament. A...
Election results close to forecasts

27 Nov 11 – Horizon’s final pre-election poll indicated National’s probable share of definite voters would be 32.6% of the 18+population or 1.06 million votes. Preliminary results from yesterday’s general election give National 957,769 votes, or 29.2% of the total 18+ population and 47.99% of...
Election results confirm six-way race held for Maori party vote

27 Nov 11 – A specialist Horizon Research Maori Panel survey between November 15 and 21, 2011, found a six-way split could occur for the party votes of Maori nationwide at the November 26 general election. The survey covered 779 Maori respondents who intended to cast a party vote. Respondents are members of...
Exit poll puts Brown well ahead of Banks

26 Sep 10 – Auckland Mayoral candidate Len Brown has a strong lead over rival John Banks in the first HorizonPoll survey of those who have so far voted in the first super city elections. The weighted survey of 570 city voters, conducted on Thursday and Friday (September 23-24), shows 49% of those who’ve...
Final exit poll indicates Brown will be super city Mayor

8 Oct 10 – A final HorizonPoll survey indicates Len Brown will comfortably win the Auckland super city Mayoralty. Mr Brown has 53.7% support among those who have cast votes. John Banks has 23.8%, Colin Craig 10.4%, others 6.4% and 4.6% will not say who they have voted for. The sample size is 432. Respondents...
HorizonPoll shows National’s vote up on 2008

6 Dec 10 – The HorizonPoll which shows New Zealand First may determine which of the main parties governs after the next election also shows National’s vote is higher than at the 2008 election. HorizonPoll says people interpreting the poll should bear in mind it expresses results as a percentage of the...
HorizonPoll: Minor parties may decide who governs

25 Sep 11 – National’s support is up 2.2% and 79% think it is most likely to lead the next government. However, the latest Horizon Research poll of 2,295 registered and intending voters nationwide shows National does not have enough support to govern alone – and will rely on the minor parties for a...
Interim: Goff leads debate winner poll

1 Nov 11 – Labour leader Phil Goff is 7.4% ahead of National’s John Key in a new nationwide poll asking New Zealanders who won last night’s televised leaders’ debate. Mr Goff scores 39.1%, Mr Key 31.7% when people are asked who won the October 31 debate on TV One. The RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll...
Jones closes in on Sharples

1 Apr 11 – Maori Party co-leader leader Pita Sharples’ 7,540 majority in the Tamaki Makaurau electorate appears to have eroded to about 1,140. An Horizon Research Maori Panel poll shows Sharples would get 47.8% of candidate votes in the largely Auckland-centred Tamaki Makaurau electorate while his new...
Kiwis back action to secure $1 trillion in new trade

23 Nov 11 – Pure Advantage, the organisation championing a move to a green growth economy, says the latest polling by independent research company Horizon shows there is widespread public support for New Zealand to secure its share of the $6 trillion global opportunity that green growth promises by 2050. The...
Kiwis enter Budget week feeling country on wrong track

16 May 11 – A new poll shows New Zealanders head into Budget week thinking the country is generally off on the wrong track – but with individuals rating National as being much better than Labour to advance their own economic interests. A Horizon Research survey of 1,864 people nationwide finds 48.4% of...
Labour up 4.1%, Winston king maker

2 Nov 11 – The first nationwide post-leaders’ debate party vote poll shows significant changes in support for National and Labour. A RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll yesterday of 1,147 registered electors who intend to vote at the November general election, shows: National down 3.6% to 35.7% of decided voters and...
Leaders' debate final result: Goff wins by 7.4%

2 Nov 11 – Labour leader Phil Goff won the first major televised debate with John Key by 7.4%. Mr Goff scores 41%, Mr Key 33.6% in a nationwide poll of New Zealanders who were asked who won the debate. The RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll survey of 534 debate viewers, taken on the day after the debate, is weighted by...
Less than 1% separates potential coalitions

24 Jul 11 – The two potential coalitions which could govern New Zealand after November's general election are less than 1% apart. The latest HorizonPoll of 1201 people on Friday (July 22) finds the current governing coalition (National, Act, Maori Party, United Future) would secure 44.4%. A Labour, Green, New...
Majority of super city voters don’t know mailing deadline

26 Sep 10 – HorizonPoll reveals majority of people yet to vote in Auckland’s first super city elections don’t know when to return ballot papers. Fifty one per cent don’t know voting closes at noon, Saturday October 9, 2010. More than 56% don’t know voting papers need to be posted by 5pm...
Maori post election government preferences

10 Jul 11 – Maori most want the Mana and Maori parties, if they have seats in Parliament after the election, not to enter a National cabinet. They prefer them to join a Labour cabinet, or support a government on an issue by issue basis, according to a specialist Horizon Research Maori Panel survey of 481 Maori...
More believe economy will decline this year

27 Mar 11 – A majority of business people think the economy will decline this year, according to a new HorizonPoll. More than 50% of business proprietors, managers and executives think the economy will decline this year. By party vote, those who most expect an economic decline voted National and ACT in 2008....
More detail: HorizonPoll Canterbury quake impact survey

27 Sep 10 – Here is more deail from the survey of the people of Canterbury on how they're managing the impact of the September 4 and after -shock earthquakes. HorizonPoll survey of 378 residents of Christchurch City and Waimakariri and Ashburton district council areas, September 23-26, 2010. Weighted by age,...
Most Kiwis back a green revolution

20 Aug 12 – New Zealanders are willing to put their hands in their pockets to encourage clean industries and technologies. The survey, of 2829 New Zealanders aged 18-plus, taken between July 5 and 16, 2012, asked recipients about their attitude toward incentives to encourage technologies such as marine energy...
National down 4.2%, Labour up 4.6%

10 May 12 – National’s 18+ population support has fallen 4.21% compared with the last general election. Labour’s has risen 4.63% but is still below the 25% it had when it lost the 2008 general election to National. In the April/May 2012 HorizonPoll of 2,506 people aged 18+, New Zealand First holds...
National has 8% lead over Labour, 20% undecided

21 Sep 10 – National has an 8% lead over Labour in the latest HorizonPoll voting intentions survey covering 3,673 New Zealanders. National has 30% of voters (3% down on its 2008 share of all adult New Zealanders). Labour has 22% (3% down on its 2008 share of all adult New Zealanders). ACT has 2% (down from...
National vote slips further 1.5%

6 Jun 12 – 6 June 2012 National’s party vote support among the total adult population has slipped a further 1.5% in the past month. A HorizonPoll survey of 2,814 New Zealanders aged 18+, conducted between May 18 and June 6, 2012, finds National with 26.6% support. This is down from 28.1% in April-May...
National, Labour slip in party vote poll

25 Sep 12 – National and Labour have both lost support among the 18+ population as a whole in the latest Horizon Research poll. News of job losses and illegal intelligence gathering do not appear to have driven any statistically significant changes in voting overnight, with a 1% move away from National and 1%...
Neck and neck on November 1-5 campaign performance

8 Nov 11 – National and Labour's campaign performances between November 1and 5 are rated almost neck and neck. A RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll of 1636 respondents nationwide finds the parties' campaigns rating just 2% apart. Labour’s election campaign rates best with 50.5% saying it is good to excellent....
New Mana Party splits Maori Party support

8 May 11 – The new Mana Party could split Maori voting, allowing Labour to edge out the Maori Party in both electorate and party vote contests. A May 3 to 7 poll of 517 Maori nationwide by Horizon Research finds the Mana Party could win 12.6% of electorate and 15.1% of party votes cast by Maori nationwide....
New Zealand First may decide who governs

5 Dec 10 – New Zealand First now has enough support to decide which of the main two parties governs after next year’s general election. The Winston Peters-led party now has 6% support among people who say they will vote, according to the latest nationwide HorizonPoll, covering 1,833 intending voters....
New Zealanders judge Rena wreck management as poor

20 Oct 11 – 65% of New Zealanders feel more could have been done earlier to avoid the loss of fuel from the wreck of the container ship Rena and resulting pollution. New Zealanders are also giving the Government, Prime Minister, the Transport Minister and Tauranga-Bay of Plenty National MPs poor performance...
New Zealanders not confident Government has adequate economic plans

13 Mar 11 – The Government suffers a series of poor economic management and policy confidence results in a new HorizonPoll nationwide survey. New Zealanders, by large majorities, are not confident the Government has adequate plans to reduce unemployment, achieve economic growth, increase household incomes, and...
NZ First 10% and set to hold balance of power

20 Nov 11 – An HorizonPoll shows New Zealand First making significant gains in the past week. New Zealand First now has 10.5% of people 18+ who have decided their party vote, or are undecided but indicate a preference and who are registered and are “definitely” going to vote. In the past week New...
Only 11% of Maori find foreshore and seabed solution acceptable

10 Mar 11 – First results from a new nationwide specialist Maori research service show only 11% of Maori think the current foreshore and seabed policy solution is acceptable. A nationwide poll of 1021 Maori by the Horizon Research Maori Panel, conducted between Tuesday and Thursday (March 7-10) finds 72.1% of...
Overwhelming opposition to battery hen cages

27 Sep 11 – New Zealanders are as united in their support of the All Blacks as they are opposed to battery cages. A comprehensive opinion poll, released today by animal advocacy group SAFE, reveals a consensus across all sectors of the population that battery hen cages should be banned, with 85 per cent of New...
Parker 19% ahead of Anderton in Christchurch Mayoral race

28 Sep 10 – Bob Parker has a 19% lead over Jim Anderton as preferred Mayor of Christchurch, according to HorizonPoll. Parker attracts 46% of voters, Anderton 27% in the special poll of 321 Christchurch City residents between September 23 and 26. Weighted, the survey has a maximum margin of error of +/- 5.5%....
Party vote: 3.7% gap between competing coalitions

24 Apr 11 – National has shed a lift in support it enjoyed following the February 22 Canterbury earthquakes. A nationwide HorizonPoll survey of registered voters, who intend to turn out at this year’s general election, and who have made up their minds or indicate a party they prefer, shows National down...
People feel worse off, locking wallets in 2011

16 Jan 11 – New-found austerity is revealed in an HorizonPoll survey commissioned by the Sunday Star-Times. The HorizonPoll, covering 2055 respondents between January 7 and 13, 2011, finds many are worrying over their personal finances and job prospects: 41.5% say their household’s financial position is...
Political poll results may exclude 30%?

28 May 11 – The Electoral Commission might be well advised to see if some research companies are excluding up to 30% of respondents before they publish party vote poll results. The commission in 2008 allocated $3.2 million to political parties to fund election broadcasting. One of its criteria to allocate the...
Political scientist: tracking undecided voters "critical"

12 Jun 11 – HorizonPoll’s party vote research is seen as going to tell a better story between now and the November general election. In this TVNZ Media7 broadcast, political economist Keith Rankin, who teaches Economics and Statistics in Unitec's Department of Accounting and Finance, says other polls are...
Poll reveals scale of Canterbury's post quake employment issues

18 Mar 11 – Up to half a million workers are prepared to go to Christchurch if there’s a guaranteed job, the money’s right and they are given a place to stay. That’s the finding of an Allied Work Force-HorizonPoll conducted between March 12 and 15, 2011. Mike Huddleston, AWF’s chief...
Post quake poll: National-led coalition ahead

20 Mar 11 – The current governing coalition would stay in power according to a new HorizonPoll. The National led coalition would secure 46.2% of the party vote. A Labour-Green-New Zealand First coalition would have 40.6%. Some 8.2% remain undecided. National’s vote has lifted 2.6% since the February 222...
Public back Shearer over Cunliffe for Labour leadership

9 Dec 11 – David Shearer has twice as much public support to be Labour leader than David Cuncliffe. 35.4% of adult New Zealanders would prefer Shearer as Labour leader, 16.9% Cunliffe. Shearer is also seen to better represent the sort of things respondents believe in and to have an edge in several leadership...
Public deeply split on carbon pricing

24 Aug 12 – Changes to the Emissions Trading Scheme have gone into Parliament as a new poll shows that New Zealanders are evenly split over whether we should even have a price on carbon. Carbon News reports that Climate Change Minister Tim Groser introduced his Climate Change Response (Emissions Trading and...
Public: don't release tea tape

20 Nov 11 – The country is highly polarised over the unauthorised recording of a meeting between the Prime Minister, John Key, and the Act party’s Epsom candidate, John Banks. 53% say that neither Mr Key nor Mr Banks, as parties to the conversation, should authorise the public release of the recording....
Rugby world Cup: 65% say "do it again"

23 Oct 11 – 83% back the All Blacks, 57% will be in front of telly, up to 112,000 downtown - and 65% say do it again The All Blacks go onto Eden Park tonight with 83% of New Zealanders thinking they will win. Fine weather in Auckland could see between 80,000 and 112,000 fans descend on three downtown Auckland...
Six out of 100 will decide party vote in polling booth

16 Nov 11 – A RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll finds four of out 10 people aged 18+ have yet to make a final decision on which party to vote for in the November 26 general election – and 5.8% will leave it until they are actually in the polling booth. The last weeks of the campaign could be significant. If there is...
Six-way contest for Maori vote, Labour preferred as coalition leader

22 Nov 11 – Results of a poll conducted by the specialist Horizon Research Maori Panel finds a six-way contest now occurring for Maori votes. In contrast with a mainly two-party Labour and Maori Party contest in 2008, there is now a six-way contest occurring for party votes among Labour, Maori, Mana, NZ First,...
Slight support fall for National in post-Budget poll

24 May 11 – National has lost 1.1% party vote support in the four days since the Government presented its Budget. A post-Budget HorizonPoll covering 1,758 respondents nationwide shows the potential centre left and centre right coalitions neck and neck. The currently governing National-Act-Maori Party-United...
Star Times: National's Epsom problem

24 Apr 11 – The Sunday Star Times says Horizon polling indicates National still faces a problem in the Epsom electorate, where it has stood down to allow Act leader Rodney Hide to win, taking his party to Wellington. The Star Times says John Key's coalition will again need that to happen, but his own party has...
Sunday Star Times on deals in high places

24 Jul 11 – Deals being done in high-profile seats such as Ohariu and Epsom will be critical to the next government, the Sunday Star Times reports. Ohariu, in Wellington, is held by United Future's Peter Dunne, while Epsom, in Auckland, is being vacated by Act's Rodney Hide and will be contested by former...
Sunday Star Times-HorizonPoll shows election close call

9 Jan 11 – This year's general election could result in a close call, according to a major new Sunday Star Times-HorizonPoll. The Sunday Star Times reports results this morning saying: Kiwis expect John Key's National Party to romp to victory in this year's election, but Labour still has a chance of leading a...
Support for lifting retirement age, close call on KiwiSaver policies

6 Nov 11 – More New Zealanders support raising the age of eligibility for NZ Super from 65 to 67 years old than oppose. However, it is a close call when people are asked which of the main parties' KiwiSaver policies they support and whether or not the country should borrow to restart contributions to the New...
Survey shows Maori unhappy with economy, iwi - point to policy priorities

10 Sep 12 – Horizon Research has released its Maori Viewpoint 2012 report, tracking the views of Maori nationwide on issues ranging from their personal household financial position to their iwis' performance. Maori are sending clear signals to their iwi and other policy makers on what they think are the most...
Trade Me, banks, Facebook top net ratings

28 Aug 10 – Trade Me rates as the country’s most visited web site in the past 30 days. An HorizonPoll of 3179 New Zealanders nationwide between August 23 and 28 shows 83% have visited or used Trade Me. Online banking comes second with 73% and Facebook third with 71%. Among media sites Stuff (the Fairfax...
Why not disclose full political poll results?

31 Jul 11 – Ex-patriate political scientist Rob Salmond has told Radio New Zealand's Media Watch programme Horizon Research is making good moves in polling undecided voters. On the July 31 programme Mr Salmond was discussing the large differences between DigiPoll, Colmar Brunton and Reid Research poll results...