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Coalition options on knife edge: National, Labour enjoy strong support rises

2 Dec 12

Coalition options on knife edge: National, Labour enjoy strong support rises
National, Labour enjoy support rises as their 2011 voters "come home"

National and Labour have enjoyed significant increases in support among eligible voters.

 

There would be a knife edge choice between potential National and Labour led coalitions if an election were held now.

 

New Zealand First, with control of the cross benches, would determine what happened in Parliament.

 

A nationwide HorizonPoll of 2,284 people 18+, conducted between November 23 and December2, shows National support has risen 6.2% since September to 31%.

 

At the 2011 general election National won 32.31% of the votes of the total population aged 18+.

 

In the latest HorizonPoll Labour support has risen 4.7% to 23.8% of the total eligible voting population 18+.

 

It won 18.77% of all people aged 18+ at the 2011 general election.

 

New Zealand First is up 0.5% to 8.3% in the HorizonPoll, a 0.5% lift.

 

The Green party has 10.1%, down from 11.4 in late September.

 

18+ POPULATION SUPPORT TRACKED FROM 2011 GENERAL ELECTION

 

2011 election

April 24- May 6,  2012

May 18 – June 6, 2012

July 6-18, 2012

September 21-25, 2012

Nov23- Dec 2 2012

National

32.31

28.1

26.6

26.5

24.8

31

Labour

18.77

23.4

23.2

20.5

19.1

23.8

Green

7.55

11

8.2

13

11.4

10.1

NZ First

4.5

5.4

6.4

5.9

7.8

8.3

 

The results are weighted by six criteria, including party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the adult population. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 2.1%.

 

COALITION OPTIONS

 

The results show the current National-led coalition would have 33.9% of adult population support, while a Labour-led coalition with the Green and Mana parties would have 34.6%.

 

NZ First could deliver 42.2% total support for a National-led coalition, 42.9% for a Labour-led one.

 

 

POTENTIAL COALITIONS - NZ FIRST ON CROSS BENCHES

 

Nat led

 

Lab led

 

Act

0.8

 

Green

10.1

Maori

1.6

 

Labour

23.6

National

31

 

Mana

0.9

United Future

0.5

     

Total

33.9

   

34.6

NZ First

8.3

   

8.3

Total

42.2

   

42.9

 

Support for the Conservative Party, another potential coalition party for National, is 3.2% (3.1% September). 5% or a seat in Parliament under current electoral law would be needed to the Conservatives to have a say in which main party led a coalition government.

 

The poll covers the period during which Labour held its annual conference. There was significant media coverage of leadership issues and a new policy to build 100,000 affordable homes.

 

NATIONAL, LABOUR VOTERS COME HOME

 

National’s rise results from a major return of support from those who voted for it in 2011.

In late September it had the support of 68.3% of its 2011 election voters. This is now up nearly 10% to 78%.

 

In September 18% of former National voters said they didn’t know who they would vote for. This has fallen to 5.6%.

 

Labour’s rise also reflects a 7% leap in 2011 voter loyalty, from 70.1% in September to 77% now.

 

The number of 2011 Labour voters who don’t know who to vote for has dropped from 14% to 5.6%.

 

The Greens have 75.4% voter loyalty, NZ First 76%, Act 49.5% - and the Maori Party just 21.9%. It has bled support to National, Labour and Mana.

 

The following table provides current vote by party and records changes in voting by those who voted for the parties in 2011:

 

Q46. If a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for with your party vote?

Multichoice - Single Answer Only

A. ACT New Zealand
B. Conservative Party
C. Green Party
D. Labour Party
E. Mana Party
F. Maori Party
G. National Party
H. New Zealand First Party
I. United Future
J. Other party
K. Choose not to vote
L. Not eligible to vote
M. Don't know

 

Total

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

 
                               

ALL

2286

0.8%

3.2%

10.1%

23.8%

0.9%

1.6%

31%

8.3%

0.5%

1.1%

6.8%

0.4%

11.4%

100%

                       

PARTY VOTE 2011

                     

ACT New Zealand

0.6%

49.5%

1.7%

 

5.6%

 

11.1%

13.9%

         

18.1%

100%

Chose not to vote

16.5%

0.4%

2.4%

6.1%

17.6%

   

6.3%

9.4%

 

4.9%

35.9%

0.4%

16.8%

100%

Green Party

7.1%

0.2%

1.7%

75.4%

15%

0.3%

 

2.2%

0.7%

 

0.3%

   

4.2%

100%

National Party

29.9%

0.4%

3.3%

1.1%

6.1%

 

0.7%

78.1%

2.9%

0.7%

0.3%

0.8%

 

5.6%

100%

New Zealand First Party

4.2%

0.3%

0.3%

1.9%

14.4%

0.2%

 

1.5%

76%

 

0.2%

   

5.2%

100%

Was not eligible to vote

2.8%

9.2%

 

45.4%

6.6%

   

25.3%

     

3.4%

10.1%

 

100%

Conservative

2.1%

 

62.7%

0.8%

8.8%

   

3.6%

2.3%

   

1.7%

 

20%

100%

Labour Party

17.4%

 

1.5%

6.6%

77%

0.5%

1.6%

4%

3.2%

 

0.1%

   

5.6%

100%

Don't know or can't remember

10%

   

4.8%

10.5%

 

3.5%

26.7%

8.8%

   

4.7%

 

41%

100%

Mana Party

0.8%

   

1.2%

9.4%

70.7%

12.8%

           

5.9%

100%

Maori Party

0.8%

   

5.4%

17.6%

21.9%

15.9%

25.9%

7.2%

       

6.1%

100%

Other party

0.1%

   

16.5%

           

83.5%

     

100%

United Future

0.4%

   

2.9%

5%

   

4.1%

26.2%

59.2%

2.7%

     

100%

 

Results of the September HorizonPoll party vote survey are here.

 

The November 2012 Roy Morgan poll also showing the current National-led coalition would be defeated by a narrow margin if an election were held now is here.

 

For further results and analysis please contact

Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research

Telephone 021 0762040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz

 

To make sure you are also heard, join the HorizonPoll panel here.