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National down 4.2%, Labour up 4.6%

10 May 12

National down 4.2%, Labour up 4.6%
National and Labour experience 4% voter support shifts in April/May 2012

National’s 18+ population support has fallen 4.21% compared with the last general election.


Labour’s has risen 4.63% but is still below the 25% it had when it lost the 2008 general election to National.


In the April/May 2012 HorizonPoll of 2,506 people aged 18+, New Zealand First holds steady at 5.4%. The Green Party is up 3%.


The 2.506 interviews completed by HorizonPoll between April 24 and May 6, 2012, 2442 of them between April 24-29.


Weighted by age, gender, region, ethnicity, personal income and party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the New Zealand adult population, the results have a maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level +/- 2%.


Results are expressed as a percentage of the New Zealand adult (18+) population. Most other published polls express results for decided voters only and will therefore show party vote percentages as higher.


Labour won 25% of the votes of all those aged 18+ in the 2008 general election. National won 32.9%.


National won the support of 32.31% of the 18+ population in the 2011general election, Labour 18.77%.


The April/May HorizonPoll finds National with 28.1% of the 18+ population’s support, Labour 23.4%.


More results for the surveyare here , including comparisons with the April DigiPoll conducted for the New Zealand Herald.


The HorizonPoll reflects the main findings of main party support changes found in the Herald DigiPoll.


Results for 750 decided voters in a New Zealand Herald DigiPoll, conducted between April 19 and 29, 2012, show a 7.32% gain to Labour since the previous pre-election DigiPoll and a 4.21% fall in support for National. The DigiPoll margin of error is +/- 3.6%.