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Research Results

Palino closes on Brown among definite voters in Auckland Mayoralty race

16 Jul 13

Palino closes on Brown among definite voters in Auckland Mayoralty race
John Palino ... a closer race when the field narrows

In a mostly two-way race for Auckland’s Mayoralty, there is a 12% gap between the main candidates, incumbent Len Brown and candidate John Palino.

Mr Brown has a comfortable lead on Mr Palino when Auckland voters are presented with a list of 10 names and the option to choose someone else or none of them (36.7% Brown, to 6.8% Palino).


However, when presented with a contest between Brown, Palino, John Minto and “others”, those who say they are 100% likely to vote chose Brown 57.4% to Palino 42.6%.


Brown, Palino and Minto have confirmed they will nominate. Mr Brown formally launched his campaign last weekend. Mr Palino is due to formally launch his this weekend.


The results from a Horizon Research June 13-21 poll of 1,106 adult Aucklanders indicates a tighter contest if the field of main centre-left and centre-right contenders narrows when nominations close at noon on August 12. Postal voting runs from September 20 to noon October 12.


Among people who say the likelihood of them voting is 100%, Palino benefits from significant transfers of support from those listed if they do not stand including former Commonwealth Bank CEO Sir Ralph Norris (67.4% going to Palino, 32.6% to Brown) and sitting councillor and former Mayor Christine Fletcher (67.3% to Palino, 32.7% Brown).  If Minto were not standing, 75.2% of his support among definite voters would move to Brown, 24.8% to Palino. 


The poll's results are weighed by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income and educational qualifications to provide a representative sample of the Auckland population aged 18+. At a 95% confidence level it has a maximum margin of error of +/- 2.9%.


Full results tables, for a list of 10 candidates should they stand and the narrower two main contender race, can be downloaded here.


For further information please contact

Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research


Telephone: 021 076 2040.