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HorizonPoll accurately forecasts voting increase

3 Oct 14

Credit: TV3
HorizonPoll accurately forecasts voting increase
102,000+ more registered voters say they are 100% likely to vote this election

A Horizon Research poll conducted two weeks before the general election accurately forecast the increase in voter turnout.

The August 28 - September 8 HorizonPoll found turnout could increase by about 3.2%.

The HorizonPoll found some 77.4% of who those who were registered at that time rated their chance of voting at 100%. The official preliminary turnout result was 77.04%.

This compares with a 74.2% turnout of registered voters at the 2011 general election.

The highest turnout at a New Zealand general election in the past 30 years was 93.7% in July 1984.

Horizon says survey results for those saying the chance of them voting is 100% most closely match actual turnout.

Turnout was 80.9% in 2005, 89.7% in 2008, and 74.2% in 2011.

The poll was conducted between August 28 and September 8. It had 2,012 respondents who are members of the HorizonPoll online research panel, representing the New Zealand 18+ population at the last census. Results were weighted by age, gender, personal income, educational level, employment status and party vote at the 2011 general election to provide a representative population sample. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error on the overall sample is +/- 2.2%.

For further information please contact Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research, telephone 021 076 2040, e-mail