Pay equity law changes put coalition govt at loss risk

Changes to pay equity law could put the current governing coalition at risk of losing power.

A new survey, conducted by Horizon as part of its public interest research programme, indicates that, depending on the prominence of the pay equity changes at the time, there is a risk of the coalition parties losing a nett 5.6% (equivalent to 159,860) of their collective 2023 votes. The impact would be sufficient for a hung parliament outcome.

There is also a further risk: a nett 50,750 voters for parties not currently in parliament would be more likely to change their vote in opposition to the pay equity changes.

The effect, if all these votes transferred to parliamentary opposition parties and combined with the potential risk noted above, would be to give the current parliamentary opposition parties 61 seats at the 2026 election, two more than the current coalition parties.

69% understand the pay equity law changes either very well (18%) or somewhat well (51%). The greater the understanding of the bill, the greater the opposition to it.

42% of respondents overall opposed the pay equity law changes.  Highest support comes from ACT (59%) and National (58%) voters.  Despite the strongest opposition coming from Green (75%) and Labour (67%) voters, the opposition to this Bill includes 28% of those who voted for one of the current Government coalition parties in 2023.

The people who are more likely to strongly oppose the changes are:

•    Professional/Government officials – 41% strongly oppose

•    Teacher/ Nurse/ Police or other trained service worker – 43% strongly oppose

•    Working in Government Administration or Defence – 45%.

Overall, respondents thought that New Zealanders should have had a say on the pay equity law changes and that the changes will make it harder for women to seek fair pay.   Respondents were asked to disagree or agree with a series of statements about the bill:

• New Zealanders think the public should have the opportunity to submit feedback on the Bill – 69% agree with this (equivalent to around 2,667,000 adults). 40% (1,538,000 adults) strongly agree.

• 50% (1,940,000 adults) agree that the Bill makes it harder for women to seek fair pay.

• 49% (1,879,000 adults) agree the Bill will disproportionately harm workers in female-dominated jobs such as nursing and teaching.

• 47% (1,828,000 adults) agree that it undermines workers’ rights.

• 36% (1,391,000 adults) agree that it will significantly reduce Government spending.

Potential impacts on party vote

All respondents were asked whether the Government’s pay equity changes would be likely to change, or not change, their party vote at the next general election.

The following chart shows the overall results for this question, including those who did not vote in the 2023 general election and those who voted for minor parties who did not achieve seats in parliament.

8% overall were likely to change their vote in support of the Bill, while 25% said they were likely to change their party vote in opposition to the Bill.

However, the potential effect on voting patterns at the next general election is best viewed by analysis of the collective effects on the parties currently forming the coalition government and those currently forming the parliamentary opposition.

Analysis indicates that of the voters in the 2023 general election[1]:

• An overall 14.8% (222,720) of voters for one of the current Government coalition parties would be likely to change their party vote in opposition to the Government’s pay equity law changes.

• An overall 5.3% (62,860) of voters for one of the parties currently in the parliamentary opposition would be likely to change their party vote in support of the Government’s pay equity law changes.

• Applying these percentage changes to the final results of the 2023 general election indicates that:

• Government coalition parties have 222,720 votes at risk, with an offsetting potential gain from parliamentary opposition parties of 62,860 votes. This is a potential nett loss to Government coalition parties of 159,860 votes or 5.6% of the votes cast for them in 2023.

• If this was the only issue being considered at election time and all of the 222,720 at risk votes transferred to the current parliamentary opposition parties, plus all of the 62,860 votes transferred from parliamentary opposition parties to the current Government coalition parties, the outcome would be a hung parliament with current Government coalition and opposition parties each having 60 seats[2].

• Although minor parties (i.e. those who are not currently in parliament) only received 159,585 votes collectively in the 2023 general election, 45.8% of their voters (equivalent to 73,090 voters) said they would change the party they had voted for in opposition to the Government’s pay equity law changes.  14.0% voters (equivalent to 22,340 voters) said they would change the party they had voted for in support of the Government’s pay equity law changes. If the overall nett of 50,750 voters changed their vote to one of the parliamentary opposition parties, the effect would be to change the hung parliament noted above to give the current parliamentary opposition a 2-seat margin with current coalition parties having 59 seats and current parliamentary opposition parties having 61 seats. 

Overall, this suggests that, depending on the prominence of this issue at the time, the pay equity changes constitute a risk to the Government coalition parties at the next general election.

Respondents who had voted in the 2023 general election for the parties making up the current Government coalition and said they were likely to change their vote in opposition to the Bill tended to be:

• Younger (40% were under 35 years; average age 44.0 years) than those who were unlikely to change their party vote (18% under 35 years, 54% 55 years of age or over; average age 54.9 years)

• 51% male/49% female versus 56% male/43% female/1% another gender for those who were unlikely to change their party vote.

• 80% employed versus 68% employed for those who were unlikely to change their party vote.

• Higher average household and personal incomes than the population overall and higher than those who were unlikely to change their party vote.

• Less likely than the population overall to have children in their households.

• Ethnically, a similar split to the population overall.

• 60% resident in the northern North Island (Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty) and less likely than the average for the sample to be resident in the South Island (18% v 23%).

• 79% had voted for the National Party at the 2023 general election.

Respondents who had voted in the 2023 general election for the parties making up the current parliamentary opposition and who said they were likely to change their vote in support of the Bill tended to be:

• Younger (55% were under 35 years; average age 35.6 years) than those who were unlikely to change their party vote (25% under 35 years, 40% 55 years of age or over; average age 49.4 years)

• More male (55%) than female (45%).

• 82% employed versus 62% employed for those who were unlikely to change their party vote.

Note that a majority (73%) of those who voted for the current coalition government parties at the 2023 general election are unlikely to change their vote because of the bill. 12% were unsure.

• Lower average household income than the population overall but higher than average personal income.

• Significantly more likely than the population overall to have children in their households.

• Ethnically, less likely than the population overall to be pākehā

• 70% resident in the northern North Island (Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty) and less likely than the average for the sample to be resident in the South Island (10% v 23% overall).

• 75% had voted for the Labour Party at the 2023 general election.

Information provided to respondents

Before answering questions about the Pay Equity Amendment Bill respondents were shown the following information. 

Pay equity is about ensuring that everyone is paid the same for work of equal value. 

This means that jobs requiring similar skills, effort, responsibility and working conditions should be paid comparably. Even if the roles are different. 

In May 2025, the Government passed the Pay Equity Amendment Bill. 

This Bill was passed under urgency, without any advance notice or select committee hearings. 

It cancelled 33 active pay-equity claims and raised the threshold for making future claims. Those who have already settled claims cannot make another one for 10 years. 

The Government has said that this will result in an estimated savings of $12 billion.

Critics argue it undermines the rights of women in female-dominated professions.

Supporters say it corrects a flawed system and will save taxpayers billions.

Stuff news coverage of the survey is here.

Sample and methdology

This survey was commissioned by Horizon Research as part of its public interest research programme.

Research method

An online survey of adults living in New Zealand aged 18 and older.

Sample sources

Members of two nationwide Horizon Research panels and a third-party panel (used for source diversity).

Fieldwork dates

28th August to 4th September 2025

Sample size

1,026 adults.

Weighting

The total sample is weighted on age, gender, ethnicity, region and party vote at the 2023 general election to reflect the New Zealand adult population.

Maximum predicted margin of error

±3.1% at the 95% confidence level.

Population estimates in the report

These are based on the Stats NZ Census 2023 population of 3,865,235 people aged 18 or more. All population numbers are to the nearest thousand.

Party vote impact analysis

• The final 2023 general election results were downloaded from Elections NZ (https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/official-results-for-the-2023-general-election/).

• A nett % figure was calculated for collective potential loss of voters in 2023 for current Government coalition parties who said they would change their party vote in opposition to the pay equity changes (14.8% of voters for current Government coalition parties).

• A nett % figure was calculated for potential collective gain of votes from those who voted for parliamentary opposition parties in 2023 and who said they would change their party vote in support of the pay equity changes (5.3%).

• These percentages were applied to the actual 2023 general election result counts.  This indicated 222,720 current Government coalition voters who would potentially change their party vote in opposition to the pay equity changes and 62,860 current parliamentary opposition voters who would potentially change their party vote in support of the pay equity changes: a nett overall loss to current Government coalition parties of 159,860 votes or 5.6% of their collective vote.

Download the full report.

Demographic data tables and additional in-depth analysis are available to purchase from Horizon Research.

Email: manager@horizonresearch.co.nz